Swiss Magic Masters 2024 - Modern Meta Analysis by Demian Coca

Published on Nov. 7, 2024

Hello, fellow Magic players! Welcome to the very first SUL blog post!

This is where I (and hopefully others, too) will post somewhat regularly about what's happening in the Swiss Magic scene. We'll cover tournament reports, community brew features, and meta analyses, and I’m excited to take the first step here. I reached out to the Aareboge Association, and they were kind enough to let me review the data for the SMM 2024 Modern tournament—so let’s dive right in!

A total of 162 players gathered at the Jungfraupark in Interlaken to compete for the prestigious trophy. It’s been quite a turbulent year for Modern, with Modern Horizons 3 essentially resetting the format, creating entirely new decks and pushing some others out of the top tier. Many players are concerned that cards like The One Ring or Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury may be homogenizing the format. Let’s see if that’s true for the Swiss meta! Here’s how it looked at the SMM:

 

 

SMM Modern Meta

All clear, everyone! Our meta seems to be relatively safe from the usual Modern threats. In fact, the SMM showcased an impressively diverse Modern meta, with a total of 55 different archetypes! Let’s take a closer look at the three decks that represent the largest portions of the field.

 

Boros Energy

Boros Energy was not only widely played but also won the tournament in the hands of Sam Marti—congrats to Sam! Although it was the most popular deck at the SMM, with an 11.8% share, it was surprisingly underrepresented compared to the online meta. Let’s take a look at our winner Sam Marti's decklist:

Boros Energy lists have become quite refined, with many players working to optimize them over the past few months. Sam's list, however, includes some interesting choices. He’s running a single Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and opted for a trio of Blood Moon in the main deck. Notably, he included only three copies of The One Ring , a card I personally prefer as a four-of whenever possible—though it can be risky in certain combo matchups. In the sideboard, he added a copy of Stony Silence , a rare sight these days. I’ve considered including it myself, as it serves as a strong roadblock against Belcher decks. The two Sunspine Lynx are also intriguing—they perform well in grindy Ring matchups, like the mirror.

 

Dimir Oculus/Murktide

I’ve separated the two versions of Murktide decks, as they play quite differently, especially when you’re up against them. The traditional Murktide variant uses Psychic Frog and Murktide Regent as its primary threats, with Orcish Bowmasters and sometimes Harbinger of the Seas rounding out the creature lineup. The goal here is to disrupt the opponent with counterspells and removal until you can land a big Murktide to close out the game quickly, or simply chip away with the Frog until the card advantage becomes overwhelming. Both of these threats are at their best when supported by counterspells for protection.

Dimir Oculus, on the other hand, takes a more graveyard-centric approach. Longtime Modern players may recall the days of Thought Scour into Tombstalker . Today, "Tombstalker" also lets you create 2/2 tokens each turn, which is especially valuable in grindy matchups. Plus, you can cast Abhorrent Oculus for just one mana with Unearth , giving you a fast and powerful threat. Once you can protect the Oculus, securing the win becomes much easier. I’ve also lost my fair share of games to opponents who managed to manifest additional Oculi and/or Frogs.

Here’s the decklist from the best-performing Dimir Oculus player and 2023 SUL Player of the Year, Noé Dumez, who went 6-2:

Ruby Storm

We've seen an aggro/midrange and a tempo deck, but the third most played deck was a deck that takes combo players' hearts by storm. Arguably the most broken deck in a vacuum, it can win as early as turn two and can even push through hate pieces like Damping Sphere and graveyard hate like Soul-Guide Lantern . Jari Rentsch reached the top 8 with this archetype, showcasing his own unique approach:

To counter his opponents’ hate pieces and counterspells, Jari runs four copies of Inquisition of Kozilek , notably in the main deck. His second splash is green, granting access to Culling Ritual , which not only clears the board of all permanent-based hate pieces but also serves as an effective sweeper against decks like Boros Energy. Personally, Jari earns some extra sympathy points from me for essentially playing “Jund”. That said, I’d still rather not face this deck in a tournament, as it’s quite strong against my preferred archetypes.

The Top 8

Four of the eight players who made the top 8 at the SMM 2024 had also reached the top 8 in 2023, underscoring that Magic isn’t as luck-based as some might think. This top 8 largely reflects the meta shares of the archetypes, with two notable exceptions: Temur Breach and Martyr Life, which are not heavily played at the moment. Note that both Dimir Oculus and Dimir Murktide are absent in the top 8.

Martyr Life, in particular, is well-positioned in the current meta, as it performs well against both Boros Energy and Dimir Murktide, though it struggles against combo strategies. Meanwhile, Temur Breach was represented by two players in this top 8, proving that the archetype is more than just an off-meta choice. Congratulations to the 2024 top 8 players:

1. Samuel Marti - Boros Energy

2. Florian Jost - Temur Breach

3./4. Thomas Gobeli - Martyr Life

3./4. Jari Rentsch - Ruby Storm

5. - 8. Gaëtan Bossy - Amulet Titan

5. - 8. Andreas Sigrist - Boros Energy

5. - 8. Thomas Wiederkehr - Boros Energy

5. - 8. Fabrizio Zavanone - Temur Breach

Check out all top 8 lists here.

Winrates

Now that we know which decks were most popular, let’s take a look at how they performed. Keep in mind that these are based on a small sample size and only reflect the results from this tournament. Many players dropped after early losses, which may skew the overall win-rate distribution. For simplicity, I’ve excluded draws from this analysis. I’ll only showcase the win rates for decks that had at least four players; all other archetypes are grouped together as “Other decks.” Here are the win rates for this year’s meta:

Mono U Belcher: 65,63% (4 players)
Boros Energy: 58,43% (19 players)
Ruby Storm: 55,99% (10 players)
Dimir Murktide: 55,53% (7 players)

Merfolk: 48,21% (4 players)
Through the Breach: 46,88% (4 players)
Dimir Oculus: 45,92% (11 players)
Amulet Titan: 45,00% (6 players)
Jeskai Dress Down: 43,75% (4 players)

Eldrazi Ramp: 40,83% (6 players)
Goryo's Vengeance: 39,58% (4 players)
Affinity: 37,50% (5 players)
Eldrazi Tron: 37,49% (7 players)
Mill: 31,57% (6 players)
Death's Shadow: 28,13% (4 players)
Other: 22,07% (60 players)

The top of the meta

The biggest surprise is likely Mono U Belcher, which topped the win-rate charts. If you’ve been on MTGO lately, you’ve probably noticed its rising popularity. Although only four players brought Goblin Charbelcher to the SMM, they posted solid records of 2-2, 5-3, 6-2, and 6-2, even playing mirror matches at the top tables. I can see two main reasons for the archetype’s strong performance: it has a favorable matchup against Boros Energy, the most-played deck, and it’s challenging to play against, particularly for less experienced opponents. While counterspells are effective against Belcher’s strategy, non-blue decks often have limited options to disrupt its game plan, even post-sideboard. Belcher has been around for a long time, but the deck is now more consistent than ever, with ways to protect its combo “for free” using cards like Pact of Negation and Flare of Denial . Here’s the list from SUL Trial winner Simon Gerber, who went 6-2:

Boros Energy’s position as the second-best performing deck while also being the most played highlights its current dominance. It’s worth noting, however, that one key factor in its success at the SMM was that some of Switzerland’s top players chose it: back-to-back Swiss Magic Master Andreas Sigrist, consecutive top 8 competitor Thomas Wiederkehr, and our newest Master, Sam Marti, all selected this deck. This illustrates how preparation, skill, and deck choice each play a crucial role in achieving a top finish at a tournament.

Only two other archetypes achieved a positive win rate: Storm and Dimir Murktide. Storm likely performed well for similar reasons as Belcher, but it’s surprising to see Dimir Murktide outpacing Dimir Oculus by nearly 10%. Since Dimir Oculus is a relatively new archetype, it’s possible that adding cards like Oculus and Unearth may have weakened it, leaving it more vulnerable to graveyard hate. Recent online meta analysis shows a similar trend. While it may be too early to definitively say which version is stronger, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the coming weeks. I hope analysts will start distinguishing between Murktide and Oculus versions in their data, as I’m confident they won’t perform identically.

 

The middle of the pack

While these are still low sample sizes, calling this section “middle of the pack” might be generous given the significant drop in win rates after Dimir Murktide. Merfolk, Through the Breach, Oculus, Titan, and Jeskai Dress Down each had some solid results but generally struggled against the top four decks. I expected Amulet Titan to perform at the highest tier, but it appears they encountered some tough matchups. Amulet Titan is one of those decks with immense potential when piloted by a skilled player, and one Amulet pilot did manage to break into the top 8. Here’s Gaëtan Bossy’s list:

Low performance decks

It wasn’t a weekend for Eldrazi decks to shine. Both the Ramp and Tron versions posted low win rates, joined by Goryo’s Vengeance, which I had higher hopes for, along with more casual decks like Affinity, Mill, and Death’s Shadow. At the bottom are the “Other” decks—a highly diverse group of archetypes, as I mentioned at the beginning. The Swiss Magic Masters is a tournament for all kinds of Magic players: highly competitive players, casual spikes, and people who are just looking to enjoy their favorite cards. As the gap widens between the top cards in the format and our beloved old favorites, it’s not surprising that these other decks struggled. Still, that doesn’t mean success is impossible with a pet deck! Hats off to Victor Stengel, who managed a 5-3 record with Jund Saga, and to David Boillat, who even dared to play Boomer Jund with two [[Bloodbraid Elves]], achieving a 4-3 finish. Those are essentially Jund trophies!

 

Honorable mentions

There’s one deck that came just one player short of being included as a separate archetype, but I want to highlight it nonetheless due to its incredible performance: good old Yawgmoth. While it has nearly vanished from the online meta, three experts brought it to the SMM: Antoine Renaud-Goud (6-2), Joachim Mettaz (5-1-2), and Max Knauer (5-3). This demonstrates that if you truly understand a deck and have played it for many years, you can still achieve good results even when the meta isn’t favorable.

Thomas Gobeli and Florian Jost further supported this theory, both making the top 4 with decks that are relatively absent from the current meta: Martyr Life and Temur Breach. Both decks are incredibly rewarding for players who are experienced with their strategies and have a solid understanding of the meta.

Conclusions

My personal conclusion after analyzing the SMM meta is that it’s much more diverse than I initially thought. In my preparation, I considered making slight tweaks to my list for certain matchups I expected to encounter, but ultimately, a broader approach would have been more effective and required far less work. I don’t want to downplay the importance of preparation—it's crucial—but it’s challenging to predict exactly what you’ll face. Therefore, it’s wise to prepare for a range of opposing strategies rather than targeting something specific, with the possible exception of Boros Energy. If your goal is to beat Boros, it’s likely more about your overall deck choice than making minor adjustments to improve a specific matchup.

I was also surprised to see four clear winners in the meta: Belcher, Energy, Storm, and Murktide. I definitely didn’t expect Dimir Oculus to fall short by such a margin; if anything, I would have anticipated it performing better than the Murktide version.

If you truly care about winning, there are times when you should simply play the best deck. That was the approach I, along with many other competitive players, took for this tournament. However, there are other paths to success as well, such as targeting the most played decks with Belcher and Storm, or becoming an expert in an archetype that others aren’t accustomed to facing, like Thomas Gobeli with Martyr Life or Florian Jost with Temur Breach. Many paths can lead to victory.

That's it for this article! Any feedback is welcome—let me know how you liked it. Thank you to Aareboge Magic for organizing this wonderful event and for providing all the data for this analysis!

 

The 2025 SUL Season has just begun! Get out there, earn some points, and good luck at the 2025 Swiss Magic Masters!

 

PS

I’ve attached all the data used to create this analysis in an Excel file because I believe all SUL Invitational competitors should have equal opportunities to prepare. Have fun practicing, and I look forward to seeing you soon!